Blueberry Growers Prepare as El Niño Returns

After significant weather events shaped blueberry production across the Northern Hemisphere, attention is now shifting southward, where growers are bracing for challenges from what is expected to be a strong El Niño event. The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has confirmed that El Niño conditions are present and are expected to strengthen into the South American summer, with a 63% chance of El Niño becoming “very strong” from November to January.

Earlier this year, weather-related disruptions in the Northern Hemisphere underscored how quickly production can shift across the global blueberry industry. Freezing temperatures affected parts of the U.S., while storms in Spain and adverse weather in Morocco challenged production and harvest conditions. Although each region faced different circumstances, the combined disruptions reinforced the vulnerability of global supply chains and highlighted how weather events in one producing region can quickly influence markets elsewhere.

The data paints a clear picture of what regions in the Southern Hemisphere may face this season, but growers and industry leaders say they’re leaning on lessons from past events, not just current forecasts, to guide their approach.

One example comes from Proarándanos, the leading Peruvian association of blueberry growers and exporters, which decided to release only short-term forecasts ahead of the season.

Proarándanos favors short-term forecasts over long-range projections because the approach gives growers information they can act on, rather than relying on long-range estimates that remain highly uncertain. “[We] understand that our projections serve as a reference for the entire chain: growers, exporters, sales teams, destination offices, shipping lines, logistics operators, packing facilities, suppliers, service providers, labor, and the broader global commercial environment,” said Miguel Bentin, President of Proarándanos.

This caution is rooted in experience. “The 2023-24 experience taught us lessons that strongly shape how we are reading this campaign today,” Bentin said. “A major part of our decision to work with short-term projections comes directly from seeing that, under certain weather conditions, an early estimate can lose accuracy quickly.”

Lessons from 2023-24

El Niño also had a considerable impact on the 2023-24 growing season in South America, including a 24% drop in Peruvian blueberry exports compared to the previous year. Chile’s export volume held up that year, but heat and rain late in the season hurt fruit quality. Growers shipped lower-quality berries to capitalize on higher prices resulting from Peru’s shortfall, a decision that slightly tarnished Chile’s market reputation, as previously stated by Julia Pinto, technical director of Chile’s Comité de Arándanos.

The upcoming El Niño is unlikely to unfold exactly as it did during the 2023-24 season, but that experience provided industry leaders with lessons they can apply as they prepare for the coming season.

“We gained a better understanding that varieties don’t all respond the same way,” Bentin said. “The varietal mix itself has also changed substantially over the past three years, so this campaign will let us observe how varieties that previously had a smaller share, and now represent a much larger one, respond.”

Peru’s growers are tracking a combination of factors rather than any single indicator that could define the season. One of these factors is the risk of pests and diseases that can spread thanks to favorable conditions created by El Nino.

“These events develop gradually, through a combination of factors whose intensity and duration can shift throughout the campaign,” Bentin said. “We will focus mainly on how temperatures and their range evolve, along with rainfall and relative humidity.”

Beyond South America

A strong El Niño season will shape more than just weather and production. Significant fluctuations in South American supply could reshape trade flows and pricing across global markets, thus creating challenges for some while opening opportunities for others.

Kasey Cronquist, President of the North American Blueberry Council and the U.S. Highbush Blueberry Council, said a repeat of the 2023-24 pattern is plausible if El Niño disrupts supply from South American growers that the US fresh blueberry market relies on heavily during the fall and winter. “If El Niño significantly disrupts that supply, we anticipate a market response similar to what we experienced during the 2023-2024 season, where reduced volume naturally drives up fresh blueberry prices for consumers at retail,” Cronquist said.

Cronquist pointed to an early forecast out of Peru suggesting growers have made significant changes to their production to better manage future El Niño events, a sign, he said, of an industry willing to adapt.

Still, Cronquist cautioned that no one can confirm how effective those changes are until harvest is underway. “Time will ultimately tell,” he said.

According to Cronquist, late-season fruit from the Pacific Northwest and Michigan, all of Mexico’s production, and early-season fruit from Florida and California become highly sought after when South American volumes decrease.

Growers beyond the American continent also see potential opportunities. African exporters are watching closely, recognizing that lower volumes from Peru and Chile could create openings in key export markets, particularly since Morocco’s production window overlaps with the end of the South American season.

“Should weather-related challenges affect South American supply, there may be an opportunity for Morocco to capitalize in the back end of the South American season,” said Greg Murdoch, CEO of African Blue. “That said, I would characterize the outlook as one of cautious optimism, as market conditions can change rapidly and weather risks remain a factor for all production regions.”

Watching and Waiting

Back in Peru, growers continue to monitor temperature patterns, rainfall, humidity, and varietal performance rather than relying on any single forecast.

While uncertainty remains, the industry’s experience during the 2023-24 season influenced how producers prepare for climate risk. The coming season will test whether the industry’s adjustments are enough to withstand another significant El Niño event. Whether those adjustments prove sufficient will become clear only as the season unfolds.

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