Premium Fruit Has a Floor, Commoditized Fruit Has a Cliff
The following is an excerpt from the closing remarks from the IBO Report Editor.
For the full report, please click here!
By Cort Brazelton
Editor-in-Chief, IBO Global State of the Blueberry Industry Report
As we close another edition of this report, taking a moment for reflection is inevitable. We are on the threshold of completing two decades since we undertook the challenge of producing the first version of this project. After twenty uninterrupted years immersed in data, statistics, field interviews, and global forecasts, my overwhelming sentiment remains one of deep gratitude. Serving the blueberry industry and witnessing its transformation from a privileged vantage point has been an ongoing learning experience that is difficult to quantify.
Today, we see figures that ten or fifteen years ago would have seemed like mere fantasy. Surpassing 303,000 cultivated hectares in 2025, reaching 2.33 million metric tons, and confirming that 77% of that supply is fresh fruit demonstrates the sheer dynamism of this sector. However, the most important lesson the last two decades have taught us lies not just in how much we have grown, but in how the rules of the game have evolved.
Among all the reflections gathered in this report, one observation offered by an industry leader resonates with particular force and captures the current landscape: “Premium fruit has a floor, commoditized fruit has a cliff.”
For years, sustained demand growth allowed the market to absorb increasing volumes without demanding excessive differentiation. Those easy times are behind us. The industry has become inherently more complex: higher labor costs, water constraints, climate volatility, logistical demands, and geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, disappointing consumers with inconsistent fruit has become an exceptionally costly mistake. Producers delivering blueberries without high standards for quality, firmness, and flavor do not face a simple price correction—they face a market cliff. Conversely, next-level quality fruit proves to have a solid floor, backed by repeat purchases from consumers who value a superior experience.
The Pendulum of Comparative Advantage
This phenomenon connects directly to another fundamental shift revealed in this year’s data—one that will define what lies ahead: the movement of the pendulum of comparative advantage.
Over the past decade, a disproportionate share of capital and production growth flowed toward low- and zero-chill regions. Countries such as Peru, Morocco, Mexico, and southwestern China led a remarkable expansion driven by attractive returns, competitive costs, and rapid entry into production. These regions will remain critically important for global supply. However, the economic advantages that fueled that accelerated growth are coming under increasing pressure: rising input costs, labor constraints, evolving pest pressures, and high initial capital expenditure (CAPEX).
At the same time, we are witnessing a fascinating development: established high-chill regions historically viewed as comparatively expensive are quietly becoming more competitive. Countries like Chile, alongside regions like the Pacific Northwest, are undergoing deep restructuring. Through varietal replacement, operational rationalization, improved yields per hectare, and the adoption of a new generation of high-chill genetics, these areas are proving to have renewed unit economics.
I am not suggesting the pendulum has fully swung to the other side, but it has certainly started to move. Comparative advantage over the next decade will be far more dynamic, fluid, and shifting than in the last. Success will no longer depend solely on geography or a commercial window, but on the ability to integrate advanced genetics, operational efficiency, and technological innovation.
The scale our industry has achieved now funds its own innovation ecosystem—ranging from machine harvesting for the fresh market and AI-driven sorting to new biological and pollination solutions. We are in a virtuous cycle where innovation yields better blueberries, better blueberries drive consumption, and increased consumption attracts new capital.
The ceiling for this category is nowhere in sight. To gain a deeper understanding of these dynamics, analyze regional data, and explore the detailed forecasts shaping the future of our sector, I invite the entire industry to explore these insights in the full report.
The IBO Global State of the Blueberry Industry Report is available for free download directly on the International Blueberry Organization (IBO) website.
