Confusing times… or maybe not

By Mario Steta

Hoping you all had a good end of 2025, I write this column a few days before Fruit Logistica and our Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Country Representatives Board of Directors, which traditionally takes place in Berlin.

The AGM will allow us to reflect on the results of 2025 and our plans for 2026 and beyond. While I will provide details of the outcome in a later column, it is important to mention that 2025 was undoubtedly a good year for IBO. This is reflected in the success of the South Africa Summit, the incorporation of new Country Members, our expanded presence at different global industry events, and above all, the continued growth in consumption and production in different markets, and what seems to be a relatively healthy evolution of the industry in most key regions. 

As for the title of this Editorial? I would be amazed to find someone who has not found the start of this year rather confusing when looking at “geo-economic/geo-political” affairs, the continued tariff challenges, and the uncertainty buildup, which, for reasons I cannot figure out, seems to still have not significantly impacted economic outlooks in most countries. It’s also Interesting to see how the 2026 World Economic Forum Global Risk Index, which had a major shift in 2025, continues to hold “geo-economic confrontation”, “misinformation and disinformation”, and “social polarization” as the top three concerns. While “extreme weather events” comes in fourth this year, in the 10-year outlook, this risk, together with “biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse” and “critical change to earth systems,” comes on top.

I’m also certain that many of us wonder how, within the logic of our own personal environments, activities, and interactions, we can somehow deal with or help solve some of these macro global circumstances that are way beyond our control. While in my view, and without being naïve, having respect for the opinion of others, as hard as it might be, is essential and something we can act on individually, I believe that there is something to be said about organizations like IBObringing some logic of stability and cohesion to these very confusing times. 

As you read above, it is likely some of you will think that I am seeing possibilities that do not make much sense, particularly in the context of what the blueberry industry represents within the global economy—a tiny fragment if we only consider its economic value. Yet, within the logic of our dimension and focus, what we do responds, in a way, to the three risks mentioned: Geo-economic confrontations? This one is way beyond our scope, but the fact that we are a global,  inclusive industry organization provides opportunities to discuss and understand how open, fair, and free trade helps reduce this risk. Misinformation and disinformation? If there is something IBO has been able to generate through the Industry Report is a space for certainty in numbers and information generated and shared. Social polarization? What we do and where we do it precisely builds on a logic of equality and opportunity that, as a consequence, should help reduce social polarization.

So yes, we are indeed seeing things that my generation never thought would be part of what we would deal with. But while things are certainly confusing, this is also helping bring clarity to what we are and should be as individuals and as industry organizations—not in the scope of our own narrow view of things, but in the logic that common sense and common good should be guiding our decisions and actions. I believe IBO stands precisely for this.

In closing, I would like to refer to the weekend column of Gillian Tett in the Financial Times (January 24/25). She analyzes post-Davos outcomes in her usual insightful and clear way, and there are two thoughts I’d like to quote: “….while humans naturally cling to people like themselves in uncertain times, we need to do the opposite, and embrace more intellectual diversity, not less”; and “…..we shouldn’t be consumed by pessimism, even if this is a natural human reaction to uncertainty. For executives and investors, ignoring the upside risks is as dangerous as discounting downside ones”. Food for thought for me, and hopefully also for you.

IBO Editorial
02-01-2026